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METR and the Forecasting Research Institute ran a pilot survey of 8 AI experts and 10 superforecasters. The survey asked them to estimate the likelihood of rapid acceleration and transformative impacts conditional on hypothetical evaluation results.
METR and the Forecasting Research Institute conducted a pilot survey of 8 AI forecasting experts and 10 superforecasters. The survey asked participants to estimate the likelihood of rapid acceleration from automated AI R&D and transformative impacts, conditional on hypothetical evaluation results. The study aims to clarify how to interpret AI R&D evaluation results and where experts disagree. As a pilot, it is an initial exploration, not a definitive forecast.
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Stated by metr.org
This pilot study is a first step to map expert disagreement, but its small sample and hypothetical scenarios mean it cannot yet tell us how likely rapid acceleration is.
What the reporting says: The pilot survey elicited predictions from 8 experts and 10 superforecasters conditional on hypothetical evaluation results, and that significant disagreement remains in interpreting the implications of AI R&D measurements.
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How this story was checked. Written from the 1 page listed above, stored 15 September 2026; claims checked against that stored text on 15 September 2026.